Mortgage Rates Cross 7%, and Renters Stay Put
Google's data center campus in Columbia County could bring roughly 1,600 new jobs, 472 new local households and 307 new students, according to a third-party study released in September by the Columbia County Economic Development Authority. The 3,358-acre site off I-20 in Appling currently generates just $22k a year in taxes. Construction is underway, though full completion is still years away. Google has also agreed to pay the county $280 million over seven years to fund homestead property tax relief. If voters approve the mechanism this November, homeowners could receive up to an $18k credit per home. The study bases its job and household figures on research into similar facilities, so treat them as estimates rather than a project-specific employment forecast. For multifamily investors, the key question is how much of the projected job growth translates into local household formation. F5P will watch the Grovetown and Evans submarkets as the build ramps.
Between 2,800 and 3k construction workers are currently on site at the $15 billion Lighthouse campus in Port Washington, and the peak has not arrived. Vantage Data Centers' project plans call for roughly 3,500 workers in 2026, 5k in 2027 and 2k in 2028. The campus is being built for Oracle and OpenAI as part of the Stargate project. Once it opens, Vantage expects roughly one thousand permanent employees across the campus and its major customers. At the planned 2027 peak, construction crews would outnumber the permanent workforce about five to one. The spillover is already visible, with traffic and infrastructure upgrades being made as construction ramps up. Few small lakeshore communities are built to absorb a workforce surge this size. For operators, the near-term opportunity is short-lease and furnished product timed to the construction peak; the longer-term question is how much housing demand remains after the permanent workforce moves in.
San Francisco rents rose 25.6% year over year through August, faster than anywhere else in the country, according to Apartment List. In August alone, rents jumped 3.2%. Vacancy has fallen from a 5.1% peak in May 2024 to 2.4% in August 2026. Apartment List attributes the surge to strong AI-industry demand colliding with a supply-constrained housing market. Anthropic, OpenAI and other AI companies have expanded their presence in San Francisco, adding to demand in a market that had experienced elevated vacancy during the pandemic. Supply is not keeping up with demand, and the city's construction pipeline remains sluggish. San Francisco's Family Zoning Plan, adopted in December 2025 and effective in January 2026, allows substantially more housing capacity, particularly along major transit and commercial corridors and in parts of the western and northern city. But any major increase in completed housing supply will take time. For multifamily investors, San Francisco offers a sharp contrast to markets where apartment deliveries have outpaced demand. Underwrite rent-control exposure carefully: covered units can receive a general annual increase of 1.6% from March 1, 2026, through February 28, 2027, even as market rents rise sharply.
Queens lost 8,852 residents between July 2024 and July 2025, the fourth-largest numeric decline of any U.S. county, according to Census Bureau Vintage 2025 estimates. The decline reflects a combination of migration and natural change, but domestic out-migration was the primary driver: Queens gained roughly 20,700 residents through international migration while losing about 38,400 through domestic migration. Nationally, nine out of 10 U.S. counties experienced lower net international migration in 2025 than the year before. Queens now sits at 2,358,182 residents, down from the Census Bureau's 2,405,427 estimate base for 2020. For multifamily investors, this is a demand story, not a supply story. New York remains short on housing, and the median asking rent in NYC held at a record $4,200 in August, but annual growth slowed to 2.8% from 7.5% a year earlier. If international migration remains below recent levels while domestic out-migration stays elevated, Queens could continue to feel the demographic slowdown even with tight housing supply.
Williams County grew 2.5% between July 2024 and July 2025, adding roughly one thousand residents and ranking fifth among U.S. micropolitan areas by percentage growth, according to Census Bureau Vintage 2025 estimates. That reverses a recent stall. The county had fewer residents in 2024 than in 2020, but its population reached 41,767 in 2025, slightly above its 2020 estimate base of 40,952. The Williston area has moved past the Bakken's boom-and-bust cycle toward steadier growth, and housing affordability has improved along the way. A Minneapolis Fed analysis found that in Williston, Dickinson and Minot, the share of housing-cost-burdened renters declined from 2019 through 2023. The housing supply caught up to population growth, putting downward pressure on rents, while median renter income grew significantly, from around $41,500 to around $50k. Fargo and Bismarck moved the other way. For investors, Williston's recent pattern is less about another boom and more about whether steady population growth can persist without a renewed drilling surge. Oil remains the key risk: a sustained drilling pullback would test that stability quickly.
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 7.03% as of September 24. That is its first reading above 7% since January 2025 (Freddie Mac, NPR). In early March, the same rate sat at 6.00%, near its lowest level since 2022 (Freddie Mac). The reversal took just seven months. On a $400k loan, the jump adds about $271 to the monthly payment, or roughly $3,250 a year. The driver is the 10-year Treasury, which climbed sharply over the summer on inflation and federal debt concerns. For multifamily operators, higher rates slow one of the biggest sources of turnover: renters leaving to buy. Fewer move outs mean stronger renewals and lower leasing costs. BTR stands to benefit too. It offers the single family lifestyle without the mortgage, and that appeal grows with every rate increase. The risk cuts the other way on acquisitions. The same rates that keep renters in place also raise financing costs, squeezing the margin between cap rates and borrowing costs.
Meta broke ground in February on a $10 billion, 1,500 acre data center campus in Lebanon, one of its largest infrastructure investments to date and a major anchor project inside Indiana's LEAP Innovation and Research District. The roughly 4 million square foot complex will include 13 buildings, including 10 dedicated data center structures, and deliver 1 gigawatt of computing capacity once fully operational. Construction is expected to support more than 4000 workers at peak, with roughly 300 permanent operational jobs once running. It is Meta's second Indiana project, following an $800 million Jeffersonville facility, and adds another major investment to the rapidly expanding LEAP district. For a county of roughly 70k people, that construction workforce could pressure local rental supply well before the permanent jobs arrive.
Americans aged 25 to 44, the prime renting years, grew 5.9% nationally between 2020 and 2025. That adds about 5.1 million people, according to Census Bureau Vintage 2025 estimates (Census Bureau). That is good news for multifamily. The catch is where the growth landed. In the South, outlying metro counties grew their 25-to-44 population by 16.0%, nearly double the 8.9% pace in central metro counties. In the Northeast, central metro counties gained just 4.2%. Other age groups moved in different directions. The 45-to-64 population fell 3.2% nationally, while the 65-and-older group jumped 16.2%. The under-18 population shrank 2.4%. For operators, the implications split by product. Garden style and BTR communities on the metro fringe sit closest to the fastest growing renter pool. Urban core product in slower-growing regions relies on a thinner pipeline of young adults. The growing 65-plus group points to steady demand for age targeted rentals.